Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

非晶态合金薄带与膜的巨磁电阻抗效应理论及计算

通过建立具有平面近横向各向异性场的非晶态合金薄带及膜的磁畴结构模型，利用线性化Maxwell方程组及Landau-Lifshitz方程，推出了在高频交变磁场及外加面内轴向直流磁场H_ex作用下的铁磁材料的与取向相关的磁导率表达式，得到了对方位角平均的相对磁导率及阻抗的计算式，导出了磁导率与张量磁化率分量间的关系，对材料磁导率的实部及虚部随H_ex的变化进行了计算，并给出了对应的磁谱图.建立的磁导率与外磁场的理论关系可将Panina及Kraus给出的理论结果统一起来. 关键词： 非晶态合金薄带及膜 取向相关磁导率 GMI效应理论与计算 近横向各向异性场     

Second-order random wave solutions for interfacial internal waves in N-layer density-stratified fluid

This paper studies the random internal wave equations describing the density interface displacements and the velocity potentials of N-layer stratified fluid contained between two rigid walls at the top and bottom. The density interface displacements and the velocity potentials were solved to the second-order by an expansion approach used by Longuet-Higgins （1963） and Dean （1979） in the study of random surface waves and by Song （2004） in the study of second- order random wave solutions for internal waves in a two-layer fluid. The obtained results indicate that the first-order solutions are a linear superposition of many wave components with different amplitudes, wave numbers and frequencies, and that the amplitudes of first-order wave components with the same wave numbers and frequencies between the adjacent density interfaces are modulated by each other. They also show that the second-order solutions consist of two parts： the first one is the first-order solutions, and the second one is the solutions of the second-order asymptotic equations, which describe the second-order nonlinear modification and the second-order wave-wave interactions not only among the wave components on same density interfaces but also among the wave components between the adjacent density interfaces. Both the first-order and second-order solutions depend on the density and depth of each layer. It is also deduced that the results of the present work include those derived by Song （2004） for second-order random wave solutions for internal waves in a two-layer fluid as a particular case.     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

Electroactive conducting polymers for corrosion control

There is an intensive effort underway to develop new corrosion control coatings for structural metals. In part, this effort has been motivated by the desire to replace chromium(VI)-containing coatings currently used for corrosion control of iron and aluminum alloys. Cr(VI) has been shown to be hazardous to the environmental and to human health, and its use in many countries will be sharply curtailed in the coming years. Electroactive conducting polymers (ECPs) represent a class of interesting materials currently being explored for use in corrosion control coating systems, possibly as a replacement for Cr(VI)-based coatings. The electroactivity and the electronic conductivity (or semiconductivity) of ECPs set them apart from traditional organic coatings. As with chromate, interesting and potentially beneficial interactions of ECPs with active metal alloys such as steel and aluminum are anticipated, with concomitant alteration of their corrosion behavior. A review of this active research area will be presented in two parts. Here in Part 1, a general introduction to the topic of corrosion control by ECPs will be presented, including an overview of corrosion and its control by traditional methods, an introduction to ECPs and their properties, and a discussion of the processing issues surrounding the use of ECPs as coatings. Part 1 also includes a review of the literature on the use of ECPs as coatings (or components of coatings) on non-ferrous active metals, principally aluminum and aluminum alloys, although some work on zinc, copper, silver, titanium and silicon will also be described. In Part 2 of this review (to be published in the next issue of this journal), the rather extensive literature on the use of ECPs for the corrosion control of ferrous alloys (steels) will be reviewed. Electronic Publication     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

CsNiCl3晶体的光谱精细结构、零场分裂参量及Jahn-Teller效应

应用不可约张量理论构造了三角对称晶场中3d²/3d⁸态离子的45阶可完全对角化的微扰哈密顿矩阵，研究了CsNiCl₃晶体的光谱精细结构、晶体结构、零场分裂参量、Jahn-Telller效应以及自旋单重态对Ni²⁺离子基态能级的影响，理论与实验相符合.在此基础上，进一步研究了以前工作中被忽略的自旋-自旋耦合作用和Trees修正对CsNiCl₃晶体的光谱精细结构和零场分裂参量的影响，发现有四种机理会影响零场分裂参量：1)自旋-轨道耦合机理，2)自旋-自旋耦合机理；3)自旋-轨道与自旋-自旋联合耦合机理；4)自旋-轨道与Trees修正联合耦合机理，其中自旋-轨道耦合机理是最主要的，其他三种机理也是不可忽略的. 关键词： 基态能级 精细结构 零场分裂 自旋-自旋耦合     

简谐速度噪声及其与势场之间的频率共振

为了描述复杂的噪声环境，考虑了一种具有频率结构的噪声——简谐速度噪声，包括它的产生、关联函数、功率谱以及作为热噪声时的频率特性所导致的一些行为.结果表明：在频谱空间中简谐速度噪声是一种带通噪声，存在一个峰值频率，且噪声带宽由参量Γ控制.当简谐势中的一个布朗粒子受热简谐速度噪声驱动时，粒子能量极大值出现在两种频率相等的情况下.这表明噪声和势场的频率之间存在动力学共振，决定着粒子能量的大小. 关键词： 简谐噪声 简谐速度噪声 功率谱 频率共振